UPDATE 2-China’s pig herd to recover in 2020 after African swine fever devastation – official

* Pig inventories at large farms picked up in Sept –
official* Hog feed output up 10% in Sept vs previous month –
official* Time frame too ambitious given big herd losses – analysts* Interactive graphic: https://tmsnrt.rs/2t0mpCk
(Adds analyst reaction)By Hallie Gu and Dominique PattonBEIJING, Oct 17 (Reuters) – China’s hog production capacity
should bottom out this year after outbreaks of African swine
fever decimated the world’s biggest pig herd, an official said
on Thursday, forecasting a return to usual pig numbers in 2020.Analysts, however, said the time frame appeared ambitious,
with the disease still spreading in parts of the country and so
much of the herd gone.The year-long pig epidemic has slashed China’s pig herd by
more than 40%, and has pushed prices of the country’s favourite
meat to record levels.At a briefing on Thursday, Yang Zhenhai, director of the
Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of China’s Ministry of
Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said inventories at large farms
have started to rebound.”Various supporting policies and market factors have helped
boost confidence in (pig) farming significantly, and enthusiasm
for production among small and big farmers is further
improving,” Yang said.Pig production has recovered rapidly at farms that slaughter
more than 5,000 pigs a year, Yang said. Inventories reached
44.46 million animals in September, up 0.6% on a month earlier,
while sow herds climbed 3.7% to 6.10 million head.Major producing provinces including Henan, Shandong, and
Liaoning also saw a considerable pick-up in pig inventories in
September from the previous month, he said.And production and sales of pig feed have rebounded
strongly, with output of hog feed up 10% in September from the
previous month.TIGHT TIMETABLEAnalysts, however, said a forecast for a return to normal
herd levels in 2020 was optimistic, with stopping the spread of
the disease key to a recovery and no cure or vaccine yet
available.Pig production is recovering in the north, but is still
falling in the south and southwestern regions, said an analyst
with a Chinese consultancy, who declined to be named because of
sensitivity around the issue.”If the disease can stabilize and doesn’t reoccur, stocks
might start to recover,” she said, but even then would not reach
normal levels until at least the second half of 2020.And while large farmers – including corporate pig producers
such as C.P. Pokphand Co and New Hope Liuhe
– have been expanding rapidly, eyeing large profits
from soaring pork prices, small farmers have traditionally made
up the bulk of pork production.The country’s hog inventory stood at 428 million animals at
the end of 2018, according to official data.It also takes about 18 months to build, stock and produce
pigs at a new farm, said Pan Chenjun, senior analyst at
Rabobank, who said the ministry’s goal was unrealistic.”In the first half of next year I think the herd will
continue to drop,” she said.Some companies have restocked farms that were infected with
the disease only to see it reoccur, she said, while many small
farmers have neither the capital or the will to boost their
herds.(Reporting by Hallie Gu and Dominique Patton; Editing by
Kenneth Maxwell and Richard Pullin)© Copyright Thomson Reuters 2019. Click For Restrictions – http://about.reuters.com/fulllegal.asp


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